Análise espacial dos fatores da vulnerabilidade à seca em municípios paraibanos de pequeno porte

Abstract

The Brazilian Northeast is historically marked by periodic droughts. Most studies on the subject, however, focus on climatic aspects, neglecting the social and economic impacts on the population, especially in smaller municipalities. This research analyzed the vulnerability to drought in small Paraíba municipalities located in the Drought Polygon, using indicators that assess Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity. The objective was to compare the vulnerability between small municipalities I and II and contribute to the planning of actions to coexist with the semi-arid region. The methodology of Bhattacharya and Dass (2007) was adapted to the reality of the semi-arid region, combining the Simplified AHP and Shannon Entropy methods. This approach allowed for a more accurate analysis of the data, the construction of future scenarios, and sensitivity analysis that allowed for a deeper understanding of the factors that influence the vulnerability of municipalities. In the study, the municipality of Mulungu, located in the Agreste Paraibano, led the vulnerability index, while the municipality of Malta, in the Sertão Paraibano, obtained the lowest value. The Vulnerability Index becomes a valuable tool for decision-making, as it allows for an integrated assessment of socio-environmental risks and supports the formulation of public policies and action plans for the prevention and mitigation of drought impacts.