Middle powers' grand strategy: the case of Brazil from Cardoso to Lula

Abstract

Considering the traditional literature on grand strategy has privileged the study and its limitation only to the Great Powers, this dissertation questions whether the middle powers can devise and implement a grand strategy. The hypothesis is that there are no theoretical limitations to make grand strategy exclusive to great powers. However, a series of criteria and conditions need to be met in advance so the comprehensive policy of a middle power can be considered a great strategy. To meet these objectives, a systematic review of grand strategy theory was carried out through its historical evolution as a discipline to understand its causes and manifestations. A systematic review of the theory regarding the concept of middle powers was also carried out to identify its main characteristics and to apply the concept of grand strategy to its idiosyncrasies, with the aim of determining which would be the main determinants of the grand strategy of a middle power. For testing purposes, it was carried out a case study focusing on Brazil from the Cardoso to Lula administrations, based on the policy of international insertion developed by them. It was identified that, even though Cardoso fulfilled some criteria, the lack of focus and coherence does not corroborate the existence of a grand strategy in the period. In the Lula government, not only was the fulfilment of all criteria identified, but also the implementation of a type of grand strategy the author entitled 'amalgamation' or ‘weaving’.