O setor de minério de ferro brasileiro no contexto de "guerra tarifária" sino-estadunidense (2018-2020)

Abstract

The present work has as main objective to analyze the Brazilian iron ore sector, its importance on the world stage, its main destinations and if there was any consequence for this sector due to the "tariff war" with the two superpowers as main actors, namely, United States and China. The aforementioned “war” had its genesis, still as a campaign promise, when then-candidate Donald Trump promised to protect the US market in the face of trade relations with China, since the US economy had been facing, for more than 30 years, a deficit in trade balance in relation to the Asian nation. Thus, after being elected, the Trump administration (2017-2021) decides to surcharge products imported from the Asian power, initiating, in mid-April 2018, a tariff “battle” between the powers, when China, in response, also surcharge a number of products imported from the United States. The main scope of this work is to analyze whether, during the duration of the aforementioned “tariff war”, there were impacts on Brazilian iron ore exports, compared to the period before the “tariff war”. The work also aims to evaluate the importance of iron ore for the national economy as well as its role in the trade balance surplus, employability, tax collection and its participation in the Gross Domestic Product. It is concluded that the repercussions of the present conflict were punctual and momentary, since the small decrease in the trade deficit between the United States and China occurred only during the year 2019. In addition, it is also concluded that there were no impacts on exports of Brazilian iron ore, since the growth projections for 2016 were confirmed, despite the instance of the Sino-US tariff war.