Condicionantes de conflito no Vale Fergana de 1999 a 2010 e a construção da segurança regional na Ásia Central

Abstract

This work describes the territorial formation process and the social organization of the countries that constitutes the Ferghana Valley in Central Asia and analyses the violent and non-violent conflict scenarios from 1999 to 2010. From that, it is evaluated the causes of conflict in the region of Batken province, which covers the enclaves of Vorukh and Sokh, pointing as driving variables the disputes for water, fertile land and the ethnic clashes, while it is identified regional and local threats of separatism, organized crime and terrorism as potential agents of intra-regional cooperation and with foreign powers. It is described the great powers USA, EU, Russia and China presence in the region and it is evaluated their roles in the establishment of security, under the prism of the Security Regional Complex theory, and in the conflict prevention, being by direct actions among central governments, or being by government agencies in the studied scenarios. It is concluded that the political and security scenario of Ferghana Valley changed deeply after the year of 1999 and that the securitization of non-traditional themes and the nationalism are the causes of conflict in the region.